Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2023 earnings: Analysts’ unified consensus

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is poised to release its Q4 and FY 2023 Update Letter later today. With this in mind, Tesla VP of Investor Relations Martin Viecha has shared a unified consensus for the company’s fourth quarter 2023 results, as well as expectations for key metrics in full year 2024. 

As noted in a document shared by the Tesla executive, the Q4 2023 consensus includes estimates from 28 analysts that are covering the electric vehicle maker. These include Baird, Barclays, Bernstein, BNP, Bank of America, CGF, Citi, Cowen, Daiwa, Deutsche Bank, Evercore ISI, Goldman Sachs, Guggenheim, HSBC, JPM, Jefferies, Mizuho, Morgan Stanley, Needham, New Street Research, OpCo, Piper Sandler, RBC, Tudor, Truist, UBS, Wells Fargo, and Wolfe. 

As per Tesla’s unified consensus for Q4, analysts are expecting the electric vehicle maker to post non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.73. Analysts are also expecting total revenues of $25.7 billion, as well as automotive revenues of $21.7 billion. Gross profit as per Tesla’s unified consensus is expected at $4.5 billion, and gross margin is estimated to be 17.8%. 

For full year 2024, analysts are expecting Tesla to post non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.62. Analysts are also expecting total revenues of $115.1 billion, as well as automotive revenues of $95.5 billion. FY 2024 gross profit as per Tesla’s unified consensus is expected at $21.5 billion, and gross margin is estimated to be 18.6%. The analysts’ unified consensus for Tesla’s full year 2024 vehicle deliveries is also listed at 2,161,075 units. 

For context, Tesla’s vehicle deliveries were 484,507 units in the fourth quarter, including 461,538 Model 3 and Model Y, and 22,969 Model S and Model X. 

Here is the $TSLA IR-compiled sell-side survey of 4Q ests ($.73 Adj EPS) and FY’24 (delivs 2,161K, Adj EPS $3.62). 4Q auto gross margin ex-RC (WS 16.7%E vs 3Q 16.3%) and the FY’24 deliveries guide are the two key metrics to watch, and any comments about FY’24 auto gross margins… pic.twitter.com/AqhGxB2Wgo

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) January 23, 2024

Wall Street veteran and The Future Fund LLC Managing Partner Gary Black, a Tesla bull, noted that metrics to watch for Q4 2023 would be the electric vehicle maker’s auto gross margins excluding regulatory credits, which Wall Street expects to be 16.7%, as well as the the company’s full year delivery estimate for 2024. Black also noted that any comments about auto gross margins excluding regulatory credits for FY 2024 would be pivotal information. 

“4Q auto gross margin ex-RC (WS 16.7%E vs 3Q 16.3%) and the FY’24 deliveries guide are the two key metrics to watch, and any comments about FY’24 auto gross margins ex-RC (WS 17.8%E). TSLA mgmt has not surveyed analysts on auto gross margins in recent quarters in favor of the broader but less useful consolidated operating margin (WS 8.3%E),” Black wrote on X. 

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