Tesla’s next step of dominance comes from Trump EV tax credit policy: Wedbush

The loss of the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit could be the key to Tesla’s next step of dominance, and as it has already been the holder of a vast majority of the market share of EVs in the U.S., its lead could get larger.

Rumors that the EV tax credit would disappear under the Trump adminsitration were circulating through the media before he was even elected to his second term. However, nobody is totally surprised that Trump, who was critical of President Biden’s EV policy, would get rid of the government incentive.

Yesterday, Reuters said in an exclusive report that sources close to the Trump administration are already planning to get rid of the $7,500 tax credit on new EVs, a move that will impact both the consumer and large companies.

Trump White House plans to ‘kill’ EV tax credit: report

However, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes the lack of a tax credit will actually benefit Tesla rather than hurt it. Other companies do not have the same luxury, the analyst says, but Tesla is in a position where it can lose the tax credit and still maintain sales because of its lower price point.

Other companies might not have the same luxury. While GM and Ford have been able to bring the costs of their EVs down, they have not been able to bring a product that truly impacts Tesla from a singular standpoint. Their pulling of market share from Elon Musk’s company comes because there are so many competitors on the market now that they are all chipping away at what is a group vs. individual race.

The lack of a tax credit will also benefit Tesla as it will make competing EVs less attractive from a pricing standpoint, Ives writes in a note to investors:

“In line with our thoughts over the past few weeks Tesla has a scale and scope that is unmatched and while losing the EV tax credit could also hurt some demand on the margins in the US, this will enable Tesla to further fend off competition from Detroit as pricing/scale/scope is an apples to oranges when compared to the rest of the auto industry once the EV tax credit disappears.”

Wedbush is more concerned with what Detroit-based legacy automakers will do now that the credit is in jeopardy. There are also startups like Rivian who will feel the impact of this program being eliminated:

“This EV tax credit removal could clearly slow down Detroit’s shift to EVs over the next few years but we continue to believe GM is well positioned on both its ICE vehicles as well as its EV lineup. Rivian has continued to battle supply chain headwinds and while the EV tax credit removal would be a negative for its business, overall given the high price of its core vehicles we do not see this moving the needle significantly on the demand front.”

The removal of the tax credit’s impact on each specific company might be something we have to wait for to see the true weight of, but it is no secret that it will certainly make consumer decisions more difficult. For many, the tax credit is the difference between being able to afford a car and sticking with the ride you have.

With Musk’s newfound influence in the White House thanks to a new role with Trump, perhaps the EV sector will see a new incentive program that will still keep companies alive while also benefitting consumers.

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Author: Joey Klender