Piper Sandler expects Tesla to post 507k deliveries in Q4, 1.83M for 2023

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has received an optimistic outlook from Piper Sandler, with the firm estimating that the electric vehicle maker would be able to achieve its ambitious vehicle delivery target for 2023. Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter also reiterated his “Overweight” rating and $295 per share price target for the company. 

In his recent comments, the analyst noted that Piper Sandler is expecting Tesla to post 507,000 vehicle deliveries for the fourth quarter of 2023. If the electric vehicle maker achieves this feat, the analyst noted that Tesla would be able to post a full-year total of about 1.83 million cars. Following is Potter’s comment. 

“Overweight-rated TSLA will be announcing Q4 deliveries early next week (probably on January 2nd). We are currently expecting the company to deliver 507k vehicles in the quarter, implying a full-year total of 1.83M units. After considering the latest intra-quarter data, we think our estimate appears doable (though admittedly, our forecast is perhaps on the high end of a believable range),” the analyst noted. 

Piper Sandler reiterated an Overweight rating and $295 PT on $TSLA! https://t.co/MlrKKsDDGj #Tesla #EV pic.twitter.com/5yLA76HgEB

— Tesla New York (@TeslaNY) December 26, 2023

Potter also noted that even if Piper Sandler’s estimate proves optimistic, Tesla would likely post record numbers this fourth quarter just the same. The firm also noted that it is optimistic about the company’s margins, which could see some improvements from the third quarter. Tesla’s margins this Q4 seem to be quite stable, considering the lack of volatility in the company’s vehicle prices this quarter.  

“Even if our estimate proves optimistic, we still think Q4 will set a record, with the annualized production rate exceeding 2M vehicles per year. We expect margins will also rise vs. Q3, given stable pricing and better fixed cost leverage. We will re-assess our margin forecast once Q4 delivery results have been released,” the analyst noted. 

For context, Tesla delivered a total of 422,875 vehicles in the first quarter, 466,140 vehicles in the second quarter, and 435,059 vehicles in the third quarter worldwide. For Tesla to achieve its goal of delivering 1,800,000 vehicles this year, the company would have to deliver about 476,000 cars this Q4. Tesla seems to have a decent shot at such a target, considering the smooth ramp of the Model 3 Highland in China and the strong sales of the Model Y worldwide. 

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