Tesla stock gets cautious outlook from Barclays over Q2 2024 concerns

Barclays has adopted a cautious stance on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) over the electric vehicle maker’s potential results this Q2 2024. In line with their outlook, Barclays analysts have maintained an “Equal-Weight” rating and a price target of $180 per share for TSLA stock. 

As per Barclays’ analysts, Tesla’s deliveries this second quarter will likely be around 415,000 units. While this represents an improvement over the 386,810 vehicles that Tesla delivered in the first quarter of 2024, the analysts noted that the number is still significantly lower than the consensus estimate of 444,000 units. 

“We estimate 2Q deliveries of ~415k units, below current consensus of 444k,” the analysts stated. The firm, however, has noted that its estimate is “somewhat in line with more muted buyside expectations.” Barclays also noted that the final Tesla-compiled consensus for Q2 2024 would likely end up being lower. 

$TSLA 2Q deliveries to miss WS consensus, says Barclays. Source: The Fly pic.twitter.com/P5j5GS9uPq

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) June 21, 2024

Barclays noted that Tesla’s likely weak Q2 numbers are due to subpar sales in Europe and modest production increases in China, as noted in an Investing.com report. Apart from this, Barclays expressed concerns about Tesla’s alleged inventory issues, which critics have argued have been piling up this second quarter. “Production ~420k units, implying further inventory build,” the analysts noted.

The Barclays analysts also expect Tesla to see an inventory increase of about 5,000 vehicles, which would raise global inventory to about 150,000 units. 

Tesla missed expectations in the first quarter of 2024, with the company delivering less than 387,000 vehicles against estimates of 415,000-430,000 units. With this in mind, another miss this second quarter will likely negatively affect the electric vehicle maker even further. 

“2Q24 margins may see new trough; further negative EPS revisions ahead,” the analysts noted. The Barclays analysts stated that Tesla is “likely to face continued negative revisions on 2024 and ’25 estimates” as well. 

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