Tesla may report 4% growth quarter-over-quarter: Wolfe Research 

Wolfe Research predicts Tesla will report delivering around 460,000 vehicles in Q3 2024, which aligns with the consensus estimate of 461,000 deliveries. The firm expects Tesla to see a 4% growth from Q2 2024 and a 6% year-over-year increase. 

Wolfe Research believes Tesla will see a flat delivery performance in North America. In contrast, it predicts Tesla China will contribute record-breaking deliveries of 172,000 units, compensating for lower volumes in Europe. 

In comparison, Barclays predicts Tesla’s Q3 deliveries will rise 8% year-over-year. The bank believes Tesla will beat consensus estimates and report delivering 470,000 units. 

Despite relatively good delivery numbers, Wolfe Research is concerned about Tesla’s profitability. 

“In Q2, Tesla’s auto gross margins, excluding credits, fell to 14.6% due to price cuts on the Model Y that outpaced cost reductions. For Q3, Tesla introduced additional incentives, particularly in the U.S., potentially leading to a pricing headwind of $4,500 per vehicle. Wolfe Research estimates this could lower global revenue per unit by $550, with total price reductions averaging $1,000 per vehicle,” noted Financial Modeling Prep. 

So far, Tesla has delivered 827,766 units. The company delivered 386,810 units in the first quarter and 443,956 vehicles in Q2 2024. 

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